NICS and Gun Sales Stats, and an anomaly

[AlanM]

This morning I was reading a post on a forum and a question bubbled up in my mind that surfaces fairly often these days.
The question is this: How accurate is NICS usage data in gauging gun sales in the US?

I did a little research and found a few (I suspect there are more) data sources that I trust to be accurate.
Here are their links:
The index page for the FBI NICS Reports and Statistics
This is a table of NICS checks by month and year that is updated each month At this time it covers 11/30/1998 thru 4/30/2016.
The BATFE Data and Statistics page

and for 2015 estimates of US state populations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... population

John Lott's Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States (data not available for same year for each state)

Now, I found with a Google search that many people are of the opinion that NICS usage statistics aren't a very good ruler of measuring gun sales. I have to agree but for a different reason than I've ever seen prominently mentioned.

I THINK, I haven't yet found definite proof, that in some states people/organizations are using NICS to monitor certain classes of individuals and are doing so on, at least, a monthly basis. Specifically I seem to remember that I read somewhere of at least one state that did so on all concealed carry permit/license holders.

Here's one case that jumped out at me. I firmly suspect that someone in Kentucky is using NICS for other than gun sales.
Virginia's 2015 population: 8,382,993
Kentucky's 2015 population: 4,425,092
Virginia's 2015 NICS checks: 462,997
Kentucky's 2015 NICS checks: 3,218,371

WHY does a state with 53% the population of another have nearly SEVEN times as many NICS checks done in a year?
Kentucky's NICS usage is even 1.8 times higher than California (no surprise) that has 8.8 times the population.

By the way, my best estimates indicate that the number of Concealed Deadly Weapons Licenses in Kentucky is about 85% that of Virginia's Concealed Handgun Permits.

Am I correct? Are states (or some agencies) using NICS for things other than actual gun sales?
If so, which ones?

[Reverenddel]

DDDUUUUDDDEEEE!!! What the hell did you discover!?!?

Because if THAT is true? It's time to bring lawyers in! That's a CLEAR abuse of power.

Dang... just. Dang!

[AlanM]

Actually, (I wish I could remember which state it was) the first instance I heard of a state's constantly checking on the status of CHL/CHP/CLW holders it was written into the law that created the state's license/permit system.

However, I do remember that at the time that I read about it I thought, and I still believe, that the practice is a subversion of the purpose of NICS.

[WRW]

Whuff! This might account for the need for additional personnel to perform that function.

Subversion? I'd call it dishonest. NICS was designated for use by FFL, not States, to background check firearms sales, not CCDW.

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[rifle]

I wonder if the NICS is used for reasons other than firearm related. Like employment purposes perhaps. I am currently undergoing a criminal background check as my employer has recently been awarded a contract to work inside a nuke plant.

[WRW]

§ 25.11 Prohibited activities and penalties.
(a) State or local agencies, FFLs, or individuals violating this subpart A shall be subject to a fine not to exceed $10,000 and subject to cancellation of NICS inquiry privileges.
(b) Misuse or unauthorized access includes, but is not limited to, the following:
(1) State or local agencies’, FFLs’, or individuals’ purposefully furnishing incorrect information to the system to obtain a ‘‘Proceed’’ response, thereby allowing a firearm transfer;
(2) State or local agencies’, FFLs’, or individuals’ purposefully using the system to perform a check for unauthorized purposes; and
(3) Any unauthorized person’s accessing the NICS.
Dated: October 27, 1998.
Janet Reno,
Attorney General.
[FR Doc. 98–29109 Filed 10–29–98; 8:45 am]

The only valid reason for use, that I can find, is FFL firearm transfer. A State that is a Point of Contact (I don't believe Kentucky is) can act as a go-between for the FFL contact with NICS.

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[AlanM]

I just noticed the first link in my original post was messed up.
Here's the corrected link:
The index page for the FBI NICS Reports and Statistics

[AlanM]

Who defines what authorized purposes are?

[WRW]

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/ ... 98-on-nics

Throughout the document, the only description of use was FFL transfer of firearms. That is...that I could find.

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[WRW]

The best I can figure is that Kentucky wanted concealed carry dangerous weapon license to enable checkless purchases and ATF came up with his questionable tactic. Now, the bureaucracy can justify more money and manpower...and GROW. Kentucky doesn't care, they got checkless purchases for their citizens and don't pay any extra for it...at a State level.

Yeah, I'd call it abuse and subversion of the system and it should be brought to an end.

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[WRW]

http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2011/01/n ... -year.html

From five years ago. The gauntlet is thrown down...and, apparently, no lawyers have picked it up. Now, the Prez is using these inflated figures to justify additional FBI and ATF personnel.

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[WRW]

https://www.atf.gov/file/84796/download

This indicates, to me, the ATF involvement in this scheme. Checks are being done where there is no FFL involvement and no firearm(s) are intended to be transferred. There is no provision in the law creating NICS for use in this manner.

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[Reverenddel]

You need to send this data to the GOA, NRA, and VCDL....

This is something that people with money, and lawyers need to review!

[AlanM]

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/ ... 98-on-nics

Throughout the document, the only description of use was FFL transfer of firearms. That is...that I could find.

So, according to that what Kentucky is doing is illegal.
Who would be charged? And with what crime?

[WRW]

See #(2):

§ 25.11 Prohibited activities and penalties.
(a) State or local agencies, FFLs, or individuals violating this subpart A shall be subject to a fine not to exceed $10,000 and subject to cancellation of NICS inquiry privileges.
(b) Misuse or unauthorized access includes, but is not limited to, the following:
(1) State or local agencies’, FFLs’, or individuals’ purposefully furnishing incorrect information to the system to obtain a ‘‘Proceed’’ response, thereby allowing a firearm transfer;
(2) State or local agencies’, FFLs’, or individuals’ purposefully using the system to perform a check for unauthorized purposes; and
(3) Any unauthorized person’s accessing the NICS.
Dated: October 27, 1998.
Janet Reno,
Attorney General.
[FR Doc. 98–29109 Filed 10–29–98; 8:45 am]

The only valid reason for use, that I can find, is FFL firearm transfer. A State that is a Point of Contact (I don't believe Kentucky is) can act as a go-between for the FFL contact with NICS.


And ATF, quite probably, insisted on this activity.
Sun, 22 May 2016 17:48:24

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[WRW]

Reverend: My sole membership is with VCDL and they being a State organization I was not sure of their interest.

Any member of GOA or NRA that is motivated?

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[Reverenddel]

Contacting VCDL to contact their state counterparts in those other states. You'd be amazed at how much networking they do.

[WRW]

As this goes hand in glove with da prez calling for funding for additional FBI and ATF agents in next year's budget (because of the increase of background checks) I do intend to contact my Representative.

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[WRW]

And we'll see what Congressman Brat has to say about this matter.

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