Case in point:
If the murder rate were about 6 per 100,000 in one year and 7 the next year, that's a rise of 16%.Research by Daniel Webster, the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, found that in the first six years after the state repealed the requirement for comprehensive background checks and purchase permits, the gun homicide rate rose by 16 percent, compared with the six years before. In contrast, the national rate declined by 11 percent over the same period. After Professor Webster controlled for poverty and other factors that could influence the homicide rate, and took into account homicide rates in other states, the result was slightly higher, rising by 18 percent in Missouri.
Using percentages to indicate annual changes can be highly deceptive when looking at small numbers.
Let's take a look at Missouri's annual Forcible Murder Rate per 100,000 over the last 54 years.
Code: Select all
Missouri Forcible Murder Rate per 100,000 (1960 – 2014)
From: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm
1960 4.4 1970 10.7 1980 11.1 1990 8.8 2000 6.2 2010 7.0
1961 5.1 1971 8.9 1981 10.4 1991 10.5 2001 6.6 2011 6.1
1962 5.5 1972 8.3 1982 9.7 1992 10.5 2002 5.8 2012 6.5
1963 5.2 1973 9.0 1983 8.1 1993 11.3 2003 5.1 2013 6.1
1964 5.4 1974 9.8 1984 7.1 1994 10.5 2004 6.1 2014 6.6
1965 6.7 1975 10.6 1985 8.1 1995 8.8 2005 6.9
1966 5.4 1976 9.3 1986 9.2 1996 8.1 2006 6.3
1967 7.3 1977 9.6 1987 8.3 1997 7.9 2007 6.5
1968 8.8 1978 10.4 1988 8.0 1998 7.3 2008 7.7
1969 10.4 1979 11.2 1989 7.9 1999 6.6 2009 6.5
Code: Select all
Year National Missouri Difference
1994 9.0 10.5 1.5
1995 8.2 8.8 0.6
1996 7.4 8.1 0.7
1997 6.8 7.9 1.1
1998 6.3 7.3 1.0
1999 5.7 6.6 0.9
2000 5.5 6.2 0.7
2001 5.6 6.6 1.0
2002 5.6 5.8 0.2
2003 5.7 5.1 -0.6
2004 5.5 6.1 0.6
2005 5.6 6.9 1.3
2006 5.8 6.3 0.5
2007 5.7 6.5 0.8
2008 5.4 7.7 2.3
2009 5.0 6.5 1.5
2010 4.8 7.0 2.2
2011 4.7 6.1 1.4
2012 4.7 6.5 1.8
2013 4.5 6.1 1.6
Is there any doubt WHY Missouri is being used to vilify all US gun owners?
For some reason Missouri has CONSISTENTLY had a higher murder rate than the national average.
Also I haven't, as yet, examined data from other states but I can tell you that comparing information to averages can be very misleading to many people.
For example:
Let's look at a teacher who has a class of ten students.
The teacher gives the class a 100 question test.
Nine students get grades of 100% and one student misses one question and gets a grade of 99%.
All students are given an A for a grade.
The average grade for the class is 99.9% and 9 students are above average.
It could just as easily been the other way with all getting As and nine students being BELOW average.
I really don't know what point I'm trying to make with this thread other than a warning to be very aware that the same numbers can be presented in many ways to prove (or at least imply) just about anything you want them to.
