Cuccinelli Campaign Postmortem

[ShotgunBlast]

In the days and weeks to come I'm sure there are plenty of people that will be providing their analysis on why the Cooch lost, but here's my quick take. While I don't read Mother Jones, they've already done most of the leg work for me in why voters may not have pulled the trigger for KC.

1. McAuliffe outspent Cuccinelli by about $14 million, living up to his reputation as a relentless fundraiser.

2. Cuccinelli's swan dive coincided with the government shutdown in October, which was especially painful to Virginians.

3. The Sarvis effect.

4. Both Cuccinelli and sitting GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell were tied to a slow-burning political influence scandal.

5. Virginians found him and his running mate, E.W. Jackson, to be uniquely unlikable politicians fixated on uniquely unappealing issues.

6. Republicans stayed home.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/11 ... a-election

Now you can deflect all you want about Star Scientific or sodomy, but accept reality that those issues were out there, exaggerated and exploited by the opposition, and used against KC successfully. They were so successful I even saw "Women for Ken" yard signs to try and combat the image presented. Really? Democrats have learned that they can exploit and win votes based on social issues. The Republicans will have to decide if they want to adjust their platform in that regard or continue to lose elections.

As far as the Sarvis effect, there's no doubt he influenced the election. This was the best turnout for a statewide Libertarian candidate in a long time (save your criticisms for the candidate for the other numerous threads) and will stoke the fire of the Libertarian Party to work harder next election to get to 10%. The question that we'll never know is how much did Sarvis influence the election. Here are what seem to be the final vote counts.

McAuliffe 1,064,093
Cuccinelli 1,008,554
Sarvis 146,311

First off, it's wrong to assume that if Sarvis wasn't in the race all of those votes would automatically go to KC (or TM). Some votes would go to KC, some votes would go to TM, and some people would just stay home and not vote. We can argue about how much goes where, but if assuming 40% of Sarvis supporters vote for KC, 40% for TM, and 20% stayed home, that gives us:

McAuliffe 1,122,617
Cuccinelli 1,067,078

You have to get to a projection where 70% of Sarvis supporters vote for KC, 30% for TM, and zero people staying home (unlikely), and KC barely wins.

McAuliffe 1,107,986
Cuccinelli 1,110,971

As far as Sarvis getting on the ballot because of some Democrat's contributions, if the story broke a few days or a week ago and there was proper time to get a reaction from the campaign and mull it over, some people might have changed their vote. But to break on election day is way to late to change course. Would any of you not voted for KC if a story broke about him that morning. Hell no.

I think instead of blaming some outside force that you have no control of, Republicans should look inward. Mitt Romney garnered 1,789,613 votes in Virginia so we know the votes are there. Where were those people for KC?

[FiremanBob]

Spreading the Leftist spin published by Mother Jones is a disservice to Virginians. Shame on you. And you talk about other people being parrots or puppets...

[allingeneral]

I think one of the biggest things that didn't make your list is the fact that Cuccinelli was rabidly against abortion and sponsored bills in Richmond that were way too conservative regarding abortion. I think there were a lot of female Republicans (Conservatives) who voted for either the D or the L because they felt that Cuccinelli threatened their ability to choose and even went so far as to support trans-vaginal ultrasounds as a pre-abortion step. Not surprisingly, this made women feel "violated", so to speak.

Cuccinelli lost because he lost the female vote due his hard-line stance on abortion.

[Remek]

I think one of the biggest things that didn't make your list is the fact that Cuccinelli was rabidly against abortion and sponsored bills in Richmond that were way too conservative regarding abortion. I think there were a lot of female Republicans (Conservatives) who voted for either the D or the L because they felt that Cuccinelli threatened their ability to choose and even went so far as to support trans-vaginal ultrasounds as a pre-abortion step. Not surprisingly, this made women feel "violated", so to speak.

Cuccinelli lost because he lost the female vote due his hard-line stance on abortion.

DING DING DING!!!!!! I said this at the time they were trying to pass these laws. No offense, but this manner of attacking the issue is flat-out stupid on so many levels. They should never have been invasive, and obamonation-like in their rabid zeal to stop abortions. You canot force people to live by your ethics, you must only entice them.

[kelu]

In fact, of all the voters who took part in the election, less than half had a gun owner in their household.

According to CNN, only 47 percent of voters said they had a gun owner in their household, while 53 said they did not.

Of the 47 percent of gun owners, 59 percent voted for Ken Cuccinelli (R), 33 percent for Terry McAuliffe (D), and seven percent for Robert Sarvis (L), with one percent preferring not to say who they voted for.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government ... ernor-Race
If people are too lazy to protect their rights, that's it.

[Remek]

This report is an attempt to drive a nail in the coffin of the gun owners. We are in trouble!

[ShotgunBlast]

Spreading the Leftist spin published by Mother Jones is a disservice to Virginians. Shame on you. And you talk about other people being parrots or puppets...

As I said before, the only reason I linked to the article is because they already had most of the information compiled into one article. Just like if I wanted to get a bunch of dirt on TMac I'd link to a conservative website. Call it Leftist spin all you, but you seem to be the only one that still believes the problem doesn't revolve around the Cooch.

[ratherfish]

Virginia got the worst gubernor progressive money can buy...period.

The TV adds were lies and not enough of the population cares a wit to see what's behind them.

A gov. can't ban birth control OR abortion. NO ONE voted to do so. It was the deffinition of "personhood" under VA statute that was twisted and changed as always by progressives and even many here fell for it hook, line and sinker.

Low information voters just want their free healthcare and obamaphones and don't care how stupid they have to be to get them.

Libertarians and Conservatives can agree on one thing....the constitution if they don't start concentrating on that and fight it's enemies we are doomed.

[FiremanBob]

What you call "information" in the MJ article, I recognize correctly as Leftist spin. Stop being a dupe.

[ShotgunBlast]

Bob, really. The election is over; you can let go now. Out of the six reasons I listed, didn't they all contribute in one way or another to KC losing? He was outspent. He took a hit in the polls during the shutdown. Sarvis did take votes from him. People were turned off to some degree by Star Scientific. He is a social conservative (and I don't have a problem with that. He should stick to who he is and own it. Just recognize that some people are going to be turned off by it.) Republicans didn't show up to the polls.

How can you say with a straight face that those aren't facts?

[ShotgunBlast]

Read This If You Believe Your Candidate Lost Due to Third-Party Voters

http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/06/read- ... -candidate

[trailrunner]

What you call "information" in the MJ article, I recognize correctly as Leftist spin. Stop being a dupe.

Stop calling people names. Try to have an intelligent conversation and discuss the facts and ideas, and not attack the person. Put your anger away and look at the problem objectively. You are blinded by emotion, and if you and the R party keeps thinking that way, you'll continue in this downward spin, all the time blaming everyone else except yourself.

Just because it came from MJ doesn't mean that it's wrong. If it were purely a leftist spin, they would have said "TM was elected because our liberal ideas are the best, and people are finally realizing the wisdom of our ways and how stupid the R party is." But instead, the first thing they admit is that TM outspent KC by a wide margin. The other conclusions are pretty objective. I came to many of the same ones myself - does that make me a leftist too?

[ShotgunBlast]

Here's some more information from the voters.

Six in 10 voters supported legal abortion, which Cuccinelli opposed prominently. Voters by a double-digit margin, 42-28 percent, were more apt to oppose than to support the Tea Party political movement, which backed Cuccinelli. And half called Cuccinelli “too conservative,” an opening for his Democratic opponent, Terry McAuliffe.

Women, in particular, were critical of Cuccinelli; exit poll results indicated they favored McAuliffe by 9 points. More particularly, McAuliffe lost married women by 9 points but won unmarried women by 42 points – an even bigger gap than Barack Obama’s in 2012 (-7 in the former, +36 in the latter.)

A quarter of women called abortion the most important issue in their vote, vs. 14 percent of men, and abortion voters of either sex favored McAuliffe by about 2-1. McAuliffe was far weaker among voters focused on the economy and health care, slightly trailing Cuccinelli on these issues.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/20 ... publicans/

It turns out that Sarvis took twice as many votes from the Democrats than from the Republicans. His election results are colored beige in the graph below

http://libertycrier.com/washington-post ... ervatives/

[ratherfish]

Why are you pretending as though personal beliefs will be made law?????

Strength of character dictates a good basis in morality!

Demonizing people of faith because of what they believe is a leftist trait.

[trailrunner]

Why are you pretending as though personal beliefs will be made law?????

Strength of character dictates a good basis in morality!

Demonizing people of faith because of what they believe is a leftist trait.

Nobody is pretending anything.

Nobody is demonizing anybody.

These are facts about how other people (yes, there are people besides those of us on this forum) think and vote. You may not agree with their way of thinking, but that's the way it is.

[ratherfish]

We fought a revolution once to separate ourselves from those who would live off our property and deny the rights of natural law.

[SpanishInquisition]

Why are you pretending as though personal beliefs will be made law?????

Why are you pretending as though personal gun right beliefs will be made into law???

[DBJohnson]

Same goal as the Christian Right....to make their personal beliefs the law of the land.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[ratherfish]

Why do you fellas always forget what's constitutinal?

Not very libertarian of you friend...........

Obama can't seperate his person from the government...gotta force everyone into his utopian belief. Thats not what our republic is about.

[ratherfish]

I don't want YOU not to be able to feed your girlfrieend massive doses of free Obama BC pills and haul her up for an abortion twice a gear. You'll be judged before the throne of GOD but that's personal responsability.

JUST DON'T MAKE ME PAY FOR IT!

Tolerance seems to include everyone but Christians. That's a far left value. Not an American constitutional one