DHS's ammo purchase should not worry you

[OakRidgeStars]

Give your tinfoil hat a rest and read this article.

http://blogs.militarytimes.com/gearscou ... worry-you/

[Reverenddel]

I've read that before.

However they phrase it, why does DHS need MRAP's? Why do they need armored vehicles of ANY sort?

If terrorists strike... wait! They diiiddd.

DHS can only watch for the BIG ORGANIZED GROUPS! They cannot do a damned thing about two crazy idjuts.

[OakRidgeStars]

The article talks about the conspiracy-induced myth that DHS is out to buy every round of ammo in the country. The MRAP thing is an entirely different discussion.

[gunderwood]

Put simply, there’s no way that FLETC is going to actually buy 750 million rounds of ammunition. Given the historical use of ammo at FLETC of approximately 15 million rounds per year or less, it’s probably going to be pretty close to the line items in the PDF linked above which, again, total 63 million rounds over a 5 year time frame.

But isn’t a total which might approach 90 or 100 million rounds per year excessive?

DHS is a massive umbrella agency, with over 100,000 armed law enforcement personnel according to a DHS spokesperson. If we divide 90 million by 100,000, that means each agent gets 900 rounds per year to shoot. That isn’t a whole lot, considering that civilians going through handgun training courses sometimes shoot twice as many rounds – in a single weekend.

I've heard many, many people go on and on about how many rounds DHS uses because they have X number of agents. The flaw in the logic is that all agents shoot and that they all shoot often. The fact of the matter is that most of the agents who do shoot only qualify each year (typically on the order of 50 rounds or less...my qualifier only had 30 and is required once every 2 years, although the initial training program had many more than average).

Simply dividing by the number of agents gives a false impression. In my experience, the vast majority aren't qualified to carry a government issued firearm (often let it lapse if the office will let them) and most don't even bother training outside of the qualification (I can't get anyone who's qualified at my office to come shoot or even try IDPA, etc.). It's part of the job and they do it as little as possible to retain the job; it's like sexual harassment training, ethics training, etc. I'm statistical anomaly, but I've known a few others too.

DHS uses on average 15M per year at FLETC, as confirmed yet again by this pro-DHS article. This is where the bulk of their ammo is used.

The article makes a lot of hoopla about the "up to" or indefinite quantity aspect of the contracts. However, the government doesn't put out contracts, even of indefinite quantity, unless they have a valid use case which suggests they need that many. Sure, things get padded, etc. but it would be contractual fraud to intentionally solicit bids, etc. without the reasonable intention or a reasonable usage case for the quantity. Letting a government contract takes some work and 1.6B wasn't chosen willy-nilly unless it politically motivated.

It's entirely possible that there is a good and justifiable reason for that ammo quantity, but DHS has not been forthcoming with the American people. Until then I remain skeptical that there isn't a political motivation behind these contracts and the quantities involved.

[vabeachman58]

DHS has the right to have up to 1.6 billion rounds. All branches of Government exercise their rights to the fullest. They will eventually have 1.6 billion rounds and they have the right to do so. If anything they will use the right to keep their budget from being cut. Really sucks.

[MarcSpaz]

Jay... Scott and I have tried to explain IDIQ contracts on this site twice. I also explained that although most shooters use about 2000-2500 rounds a year, there are some that will do that in week. With the volume of rounds used per person and the number of people using the facility, it makes since for high-volume quotes and contracts.

Most of the replies were friendly, but still perpetuated the misunderstanding.

Here something that should still further the idea that the government is not buying up all the ammo, but rather the people... what agency in the federal government uses 22LR for anything?

Maybe the military for a small handful for suppressed weapons used in a covert mission? Not likely... but they sure aren't buying all of it. DHS doesn't even do covert combat missions. So why can't I find 22LR on the shelf anywhere around here? Private citizens are buying it up.

[gunderwood]

Jay... Scott and I have tried to explain IDIQ contracts on this site twice. I also explained that although most shooters use about 2000-2500 rounds a year, there are some that will do that in week. With the volume of rounds used per person and the number of people using the facility, it makes since for high-volume quotes and contracts.

Most of the replies were friendly, but still perpetuated the misunderstanding.

Simple math works both ways. Most can't be using the 2-2.k you claim because then even 1.6B isn't enough in one year. Most barely shoot at all and only a statistically insignificant group shoot often.

DHS claims to have 100k armed agents. If most (aka the average) are shooting what you claim they would need 100k x 2-2.5k = 200-250M. DHS is only buying 150M/year (remember ICE got most of that 1.6B, DHS only gets 750M/5 years).

You get me all wrong, I wish I could train that often on the governments dime. All they are willing to pay for is qualification once every two years. Most of the people I work with will not even touch another firearm, personal or government, until they have to requal. Yet, everyone counts as an "armed agent." It's just like local LEA's, people assume they train way more than they actually do; although a few train extensively. That being said of course some agents train significantly more than others. E.g. a Fed Air Marshal I became acquainted with shoots a heck of a lot. Again, not even remotely close to the norm and not what DHS even claims they use for training. Also, doesn't explain why so much of that order is for hollow points vice actual training ammo. Not even the Marshal shot HPs for training.

[gunderwood]

Here something that should still further the idea that the government is not buying up all the ammo, but rather the people... what agency in the federal government uses 22LR for anything?

Maybe the military for a small handful for suppressed weapons used in a covert mission? Not likely... but they sure aren't buying all of it. DHS doesn't even do covert combat missions. So why can't I find 22LR on the shelf anywhere around here? Private citizens are buying it up.

Of course civilians are shooting and buying ammo. .22lr can't be found because the demand for it sky rocketed once the normal SD/HD/LEA rounds quadrupled in price or can't be found at all. .22lr is about as cheap as it gets and it's going for as much as 9mm was before this DHS contract stuff.

[jcgorla]

There's always the possibility to make a FOIA request for the contract and documentation. Has someone already made such a request? That would make more sense than all the suppositions I've heard with little factual information behind it. I'm not trying to cover for DHS, but there are ways to get information on government contracts.

[diducmeb4]

Just wondering if anyone has done an analysis of total ammo acquisitions for the 5 years prior to this new ID/IQ contract. That would (should) give us an idea of what they really use.