Assumptions
- zephyp
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 10207
- Joined: Tue, 05 May 2009 08:40:55
- Location: Springfield, VA
Assumptions
Here are some assumptions (and quick tips) to make when preparing for any SHTF scenario.
Number 1 is assume that you will need to be prepared - NOW.
Assume that it might be along time before things get back to normal - plan for at least a 3 month "siege."
They might come for your guns - bury some with ammo.
Martial law might be declared - have an agreement with your spouse and loved ones to hit the grocery store if possible then go straight home.
There will be a run on grocery stores and banks - see above and bartering below. Have things to trade (sugar, coffee, ammo, gold, etc).
Electricity and other vital utilities (water) may be non-existent or sporadic - candles, batteries, etc.
Medical and emergency support will be severely degraded - get a first aid kit and know how t treat wounds and simple illnesses.
Gangs might roam the streets - do you own a gun...stay off the streets.
People might be more interested in bartering that selling - see above.
Some of your neighbors will be friends, others... - get to know them now.
Number 1 is assume that you will need to be prepared - NOW.
Assume that it might be along time before things get back to normal - plan for at least a 3 month "siege."
They might come for your guns - bury some with ammo.
Martial law might be declared - have an agreement with your spouse and loved ones to hit the grocery store if possible then go straight home.
There will be a run on grocery stores and banks - see above and bartering below. Have things to trade (sugar, coffee, ammo, gold, etc).
Electricity and other vital utilities (water) may be non-existent or sporadic - candles, batteries, etc.
Medical and emergency support will be severely degraded - get a first aid kit and know how t treat wounds and simple illnesses.
Gangs might roam the streets - do you own a gun...stay off the streets.
People might be more interested in bartering that selling - see above.
Some of your neighbors will be friends, others... - get to know them now.
No more catchy slogans for me...I am simply fed up...4...four...4...2+2...


- VBshooter
- VGOF Silver Supporter

- Posts: 3851
- Joined: Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:14:27
- Location: Virginia Beach
Re: Assumptions
Survival is a state of mind, practice it, live it. do it!!!!
"Not to worry, I got this !!! " "Stand your ground. Don't fire unless fired upon, but if they mean to have a war, let it begin here." Captain John Parker- zephyp
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 10207
- Joined: Tue, 05 May 2009 08:40:55
- Location: Springfield, VA
Re: Assumptions
If you believe the article posted by WND a food shortage might indeed be in the works. Consider the freezing weather across the US right now. FL alone has been hit hard...its chilling -- no pun intended.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=121378
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=121378
No more catchy slogans for me...I am simply fed up...4...four...4...2+2...


- LFS
- VGOF Silver Supporter

- Posts: 598
- Joined: Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:14:54
- Location: People's Republic of Falls Church
- Contact:
Re: Assumptions
With regard to bartering, I read some place that if there is a break-down of society one of the best currencies to have would be .22LR. Anybody stocking up on ammo to barter with? What about buying a couple of hi-point carbines simply to have for trades when the time comes?
- zephyp
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 10207
- Joined: Tue, 05 May 2009 08:40:55
- Location: Springfield, VA
Re: Assumptions
Indeed. Of course I havent stocked up on anything for bartering...LFS wrote:With regard to bartering, I read some place that if there is a break-down of society one of the best currencies to have would be .22LR. Anybody stocking up on ammo to barter with? What about buying a couple of hi-point carbines simply to have for trades when the time comes?
No more catchy slogans for me...I am simply fed up...4...four...4...2+2...


- ksanftleben
- Sharp Shooter

- Posts: 101
- Joined: Sat, 10 Oct 2009 08:09:46
- Location: Montclair, VA
Re: Assumptions
You might want to check out Boston T. Party's Boston's Guide to Surviving Y2K. Yes, he was completely wrong about Y2K, and some of the material is now dated, but it's still a pretty good primer on being prepared.
And, he has a section/chapter on the best things to stockpile for bartering. If I remember right, inexpensive 22 rifles, 22LR ammo, cigarettes, and vodka/whiskey are right up there at the top of his list.
R/Kurt
And, he has a section/chapter on the best things to stockpile for bartering. If I remember right, inexpensive 22 rifles, 22LR ammo, cigarettes, and vodka/whiskey are right up there at the top of his list.
R/Kurt
Re: Assumptions
I'll trade you some garden seed for a coupla lbs of coffee...zephyp wrote:Indeed. Of course I havent stocked up on anything for bartering...LFS wrote:With regard to bartering, I read some place that if there is a break-down of society one of the best currencies to have would be .22LR. Anybody stocking up on ammo to barter with? What about buying a couple of hi-point carbines simply to have for trades when the time comes?...but I'm thinking almost any kind of ammo (22LR sounds like an excellent choice if you only pick one), guns, gold, coffee, sugar, etc. You could also add cigarettes and liquor for variety.
MMMMmmmm,that's good stuff - pour me another cup!
Now is the time for all good men to get off their rusty dustys...
- WildBill44
- Sharp Shooter

- Posts: 144
- Joined: Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:40:56
- Location: southern Virginia, Occupied CSA
Re: Assumptions
A word of warning however, do NOT barter or sell to someone who may return and use said guns and/or ammo on YOU! A good friend, now deceased related a story about something that happened to him 50+ years ago when he had first opened a gun shop in Chesterfield. A man came into the shop and bought a box of .38 ammo. He rang it up and put the money in the register. Then the man pointed to a .38 revolver in the case and asked if he could take a look at it. (You can see where this is going, right?) The guy then proceeded to stick a few rounds in the gun he was looking at and robbed him of the gun as well as the money in the register. Bob said he learned that never again would he first hand a customer a box of ammo, then show him a gun in the same caliber!
- smc331
- VGOF Silver Supporter

- Posts: 382
- Joined: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:57:38
- Location: Louisa County & Charlotte, NC
- Contact:
Re: Assumptions
Hey! We can all stock up on compost, too - I hear there's a major production facility up near the Potomac. 
"A democracy is two wolves and a small lamb voting on what to have for dinner. Freedom under a constitutional republic is a well armed lamb contesting the vote."
Benjamin Franklin

http://macbournes.com/
Benjamin Franklin
http://macbournes.com/
- zephyp
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 10207
- Joined: Tue, 05 May 2009 08:40:55
- Location: Springfield, VA
Re: Assumptions
Only one? There are several...smc331 wrote:Hey! We can all stock up on compost, too - I hear there's a major production facility up near the Potomac.
No more catchy slogans for me...I am simply fed up...4...four...4...2+2...


- graybeard321
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 508
- Joined: Sat, 09 May 2009 22:25:03
- Location: Appomattox
Re: Assumptions
You might want to add prophane, wood , or some other fuel to cook with. if they turn off the gas and no electric it's hard to cook.
also good idea to stock uo on beans, beef stew or mre's.
also good idea to stock uo on beans, beef stew or mre's.
Re: Assumptions
On a serious note, you guys with boys in the right age group can't go wrong with the BSA.
Be a leader with all the training and then live it - you'll never regret the time spent with your son on the trail.
My pack stays ready... it's a good feeling to know just how little one needs to get by.
Off to Gilwell, happy land! I'm gonna work my ticket if I can.
Be a leader with all the training and then live it - you'll never regret the time spent with your son on the trail.
My pack stays ready... it's a good feeling to know just how little one needs to get by.
Off to Gilwell, happy land! I'm gonna work my ticket if I can.
Now is the time for all good men to get off their rusty dustys...
- graybeard321
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 508
- Joined: Sat, 09 May 2009 22:25:03
- Location: Appomattox
Re: Assumptions
Some of my fondess memories of my youth was the time i spend with my dad in the good old BSA. also the memories I have of working with my two sons from cub to boy scout makes this old man smile. I can not wait till my grandsons get old enough to join and i hope i will be in good health and able to work with them.
Be prepared.
Be prepared.
-
OakRidgeStars
- VGOF Gold Supporter

- Posts: 14108
- Joined: Sun, 22 Mar 2009 10:13:20
Re: Assumptions
After Hurricane Isabel, my gas grill was used daily for cooking and heating water on the side burner. Since then, I have purchased a larger propane burner, similar to what you would use to fry a turkey, to heat 5 gallons of water at a time. The water can be used for bathing if the power is off. I now keep three 20lb propane tanks filled for emergencies.graybeard321 wrote:You might want to add prophane, wood , or some other fuel to cook with. if they turn off the gas and no electric it's hard to cook.
also good idea to stock uo on beans, beef stew or mre's.
Re: Assumptions
AN ABSOLUTE MUST READ… I started reading and couldn’t stop until I finished.
Juval Aviv was the Israeli Agent upon whom the movie 'Munich' was
based. He was Golda Meir's bodyguard, and she appointed him to track
down and bring to justice the Palestinian terrorists who took the
Israeli athletes hostage and killed them during the Munich Olympic
Games.
In a lecture in New York City he shared information that EVERY
American needs to know -- but that our government has not yet shared
with us.
He predicted the London subway bombing on the Bill O'Reilly show on
Fox News stating publicly that it would happen within a week. At the
time, O'Reilly laughed, and mocked him saying that in a week he wanted
him back on the show. Unfortunately, within a week the terrorist
attack had occurred.
Juval Aviv gave intelligence (via what he had gathered in Israel and
the Middle East) to the Bush Administration about 9/11, a month before
it occurred. His report specifically said they would use planes as
bombs and target high profile buildings and monuments. Congress has
since hired him as a security consultant.
Now for his future predictions. He predicts the next terrorist attack
on the U.S. will occur within the next few months.
Forget hijacking airplanes, because he says terrorists will NEVER try
and hijack a plane again as they know the people onboard will never go
down quietly again. Aviv believes our airport security is a joke --
that we have been reactionary rather than proactive in developing
strategies that are truly effective.
For example:
1) Our airport technology is outdated. We look for metal, and the new
explosives are made of plastic.
2) He talked about how some idiot tried to light his shoe on fire.
Because of that, now everyone has to take off their shoes. A group of
idiots tried to bring aboard liquid explosives. Now we can't bring
liquids on board. He says he's waiting for some suicidal maniac to
pour liquid explosive on his underwear; at which point, security will
have us all traveling naked!
Every strategy we have is reactionary.
3) We only focus on security when people are heading to the gates.
Aviv says that if a terrorist attack targets airports in the future,
they will target busy times on the front end of the airport when/where
people are checking in. It would be easy for someone to take two
suitcases of explosives, walk up to a busy check-in line, ask a person
next to them to watch their bags for a minute while they run to the
restroom or get a drink, and then detonate the bags BEFORE security
even gets involved. In Israel, security checks bags BEFORE people can
even ENTER the airport.
Aviv says the next terrorist attack here in America is imminent and
will involve suicide bombers and non-suicide bombers in places where
large groups of people congregate. (i.e., Disneyland, Las Vegas
casinos, big cities (New York, San Francisco, Chicago, etc.) and that
it will also include shopping malls, subways in rush hour, train
stations, etc., as well as, rural America this time. The interlands
(Wyoming, Montana, etc.).
The attack will be characterized by simultaneous detonations around
the country (terrorists like big impact), involving at least 5-8
cities, including rural areas.
Aviv says terrorists won't need to use suicide bombers in many of the
larger cities, because at places like the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, they
can simply valet park a car loaded with explosives and walk away.
Aviv says all of the above is well known in intelligence circles, but
that our U. S. Government does not want to 'alarm American citizens'
with the facts. The world is quickly going to become 'a different
place', and issues like 'global warming' and political correctness
will become totally irrelevant.
On an encouraging note, he says that Americans don't have to be
concerned about being nuked. Aviv says the terrorists who want to
destroy America will not use sophisticated weapons. They like to use
suicide as a front-line approach. It's cheap, it's easy, it's
effective; and they have an infinite abundance of young militants more
than willing to 'meet their destiny'.
He also says the next level of terrorists, over which America should
be most concerned, will not be coming from abroad. But will be,
instead, 'homegrown', having attended and been educated in our own
schools and universities right here in the U.S. He says to look for
'students' who frequently travel back and forth to the Middle East.
These young terrorists will be most dangerous because they will know
our language and will fully understand the habits of Americans; but
that we Americans won't know/understand a thing about them.
Aviv says that, as a people, Americans are unaware and uneducated
about the terrorist threats we will inevitably face. America still
has only a handful of Arabic and Farsi speaking people in our
intelligence networks, and Aviv says it is critical that we change
that fact SOON.
So, what can America do to protect itself? From an intelligence
perspective, Aviv says the U.S. needs to stop relying on satellites
and technology for intelligence. We need to, instead, follow Israel's,
Ireland's and England's hands-on examples of human intelligence, both
from an infiltration perspective as well as to pay attention to, and
trust 'aware' citizens to help. We need to engage and educate
ourselves as citizens; however, our U. S. government continues to
treat us, its citizens, 'like babies'. Our government thinks we 'can't
handle the truth' and are concerned that we'll panic if we understand
the realities of terrorism. Aviv says this is a deadly mistake.
Aviv recently created/executed a security test for our Congress, by
placing an empty briefcase in five well-traveled spots in five major
cities. The results? Not one person called 911 or sought a policeman
to check it out. In fact, in Chicago, someone tried to steal the
briefcase!
In comparison, Aviv says that citizens of Israel are so well 'trained'
that an unattended bag or package would be reported in seconds by
citizen(s) who know to publicly shout, 'Unattended Bag!' The area
would be quickly & calmly cleared by the citizens themselves.
Unfortunately, America hasn't been yet 'hurt enough' by terrorism for
their government to fully understand the need to educate its citizens
or for the government to understand that it's their citizens who are,
inevitably, the best first-line of defense against terrorism.
Aviv also was concerned about the high number of children here in
America who were in preschool and kindergarten after 9/11, who were
'lost' without parents being able to pick them up, and about our
schools that had no plan in place to best care for the students until
parents could get there. (In New York City, this was days, in some
cases!)
He stresses the importance of having a plan, that's agreed upon within
your family, of how to respond in the event of a terrorist emergency.
He urges parents to contact their children's schools and demand that
the schools too, develop plans of actions, just as they do in Israel.
Does your family know what to do if you can't contact one another by
phone? Where would you gather in an emergency? He says we should all
have a plan that is easy enough for even our youngest children to
remember and follow.
Aviv says that the U. S. government has in force a plan, that in the
event of another terrorist
attack, EVERYONE's ability to use cell phones, blackberries, etc.,
will immediately be cut-off, as this is the preferred communication
source used by terrorists and is often the way that their bombs are
detonated.
How will you communicate with your loved ones in the event you cannot
speak to each other? You need to have a plan.
If you understand, and believe what you have just read, then you must
feel compelled to send this to every concerned parent, guardian,
grandparents, uncles, aunts, whomever. Don't stop there. In addition
to sharing this via e-mail, contact and discuss this information with
whomever it makes sense to. Make contingency plans with those you care
about. Better that you have plans in place, and never have to use
them, then to have no plans in place, and find you needed them.
If you choose not to share this, or not to have a plan in place, and
nothing ever occurs -- good for you! However, in the event something
does happen, and even moreso, if it directly affects your loved ones,
then this e-mail will haunt you forever.
Telling yourself after the fact, "I should have sent this to so and
so, but deleted it as so much trash from old Bill Jones, plus, I just
didn't believe it", will not change anything. You were alerted, had
the chance to do something, and instead of erring on the side of
caution, you chose to disregard, if nothing else, a sensible, valuable
warning
Juval Aviv was the Israeli Agent upon whom the movie 'Munich' was
based. He was Golda Meir's bodyguard, and she appointed him to track
down and bring to justice the Palestinian terrorists who took the
Israeli athletes hostage and killed them during the Munich Olympic
Games.
In a lecture in New York City he shared information that EVERY
American needs to know -- but that our government has not yet shared
with us.
He predicted the London subway bombing on the Bill O'Reilly show on
Fox News stating publicly that it would happen within a week. At the
time, O'Reilly laughed, and mocked him saying that in a week he wanted
him back on the show. Unfortunately, within a week the terrorist
attack had occurred.
Juval Aviv gave intelligence (via what he had gathered in Israel and
the Middle East) to the Bush Administration about 9/11, a month before
it occurred. His report specifically said they would use planes as
bombs and target high profile buildings and monuments. Congress has
since hired him as a security consultant.
Now for his future predictions. He predicts the next terrorist attack
on the U.S. will occur within the next few months.
Forget hijacking airplanes, because he says terrorists will NEVER try
and hijack a plane again as they know the people onboard will never go
down quietly again. Aviv believes our airport security is a joke --
that we have been reactionary rather than proactive in developing
strategies that are truly effective.
For example:
1) Our airport technology is outdated. We look for metal, and the new
explosives are made of plastic.
2) He talked about how some idiot tried to light his shoe on fire.
Because of that, now everyone has to take off their shoes. A group of
idiots tried to bring aboard liquid explosives. Now we can't bring
liquids on board. He says he's waiting for some suicidal maniac to
pour liquid explosive on his underwear; at which point, security will
have us all traveling naked!
Every strategy we have is reactionary.
3) We only focus on security when people are heading to the gates.
Aviv says that if a terrorist attack targets airports in the future,
they will target busy times on the front end of the airport when/where
people are checking in. It would be easy for someone to take two
suitcases of explosives, walk up to a busy check-in line, ask a person
next to them to watch their bags for a minute while they run to the
restroom or get a drink, and then detonate the bags BEFORE security
even gets involved. In Israel, security checks bags BEFORE people can
even ENTER the airport.
Aviv says the next terrorist attack here in America is imminent and
will involve suicide bombers and non-suicide bombers in places where
large groups of people congregate. (i.e., Disneyland, Las Vegas
casinos, big cities (New York, San Francisco, Chicago, etc.) and that
it will also include shopping malls, subways in rush hour, train
stations, etc., as well as, rural America this time. The interlands
(Wyoming, Montana, etc.).
The attack will be characterized by simultaneous detonations around
the country (terrorists like big impact), involving at least 5-8
cities, including rural areas.
Aviv says terrorists won't need to use suicide bombers in many of the
larger cities, because at places like the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, they
can simply valet park a car loaded with explosives and walk away.
Aviv says all of the above is well known in intelligence circles, but
that our U. S. Government does not want to 'alarm American citizens'
with the facts. The world is quickly going to become 'a different
place', and issues like 'global warming' and political correctness
will become totally irrelevant.
On an encouraging note, he says that Americans don't have to be
concerned about being nuked. Aviv says the terrorists who want to
destroy America will not use sophisticated weapons. They like to use
suicide as a front-line approach. It's cheap, it's easy, it's
effective; and they have an infinite abundance of young militants more
than willing to 'meet their destiny'.
He also says the next level of terrorists, over which America should
be most concerned, will not be coming from abroad. But will be,
instead, 'homegrown', having attended and been educated in our own
schools and universities right here in the U.S. He says to look for
'students' who frequently travel back and forth to the Middle East.
These young terrorists will be most dangerous because they will know
our language and will fully understand the habits of Americans; but
that we Americans won't know/understand a thing about them.
Aviv says that, as a people, Americans are unaware and uneducated
about the terrorist threats we will inevitably face. America still
has only a handful of Arabic and Farsi speaking people in our
intelligence networks, and Aviv says it is critical that we change
that fact SOON.
So, what can America do to protect itself? From an intelligence
perspective, Aviv says the U.S. needs to stop relying on satellites
and technology for intelligence. We need to, instead, follow Israel's,
Ireland's and England's hands-on examples of human intelligence, both
from an infiltration perspective as well as to pay attention to, and
trust 'aware' citizens to help. We need to engage and educate
ourselves as citizens; however, our U. S. government continues to
treat us, its citizens, 'like babies'. Our government thinks we 'can't
handle the truth' and are concerned that we'll panic if we understand
the realities of terrorism. Aviv says this is a deadly mistake.
Aviv recently created/executed a security test for our Congress, by
placing an empty briefcase in five well-traveled spots in five major
cities. The results? Not one person called 911 or sought a policeman
to check it out. In fact, in Chicago, someone tried to steal the
briefcase!
In comparison, Aviv says that citizens of Israel are so well 'trained'
that an unattended bag or package would be reported in seconds by
citizen(s) who know to publicly shout, 'Unattended Bag!' The area
would be quickly & calmly cleared by the citizens themselves.
Unfortunately, America hasn't been yet 'hurt enough' by terrorism for
their government to fully understand the need to educate its citizens
or for the government to understand that it's their citizens who are,
inevitably, the best first-line of defense against terrorism.
Aviv also was concerned about the high number of children here in
America who were in preschool and kindergarten after 9/11, who were
'lost' without parents being able to pick them up, and about our
schools that had no plan in place to best care for the students until
parents could get there. (In New York City, this was days, in some
cases!)
He stresses the importance of having a plan, that's agreed upon within
your family, of how to respond in the event of a terrorist emergency.
He urges parents to contact their children's schools and demand that
the schools too, develop plans of actions, just as they do in Israel.
Does your family know what to do if you can't contact one another by
phone? Where would you gather in an emergency? He says we should all
have a plan that is easy enough for even our youngest children to
remember and follow.
Aviv says that the U. S. government has in force a plan, that in the
event of another terrorist
attack, EVERYONE's ability to use cell phones, blackberries, etc.,
will immediately be cut-off, as this is the preferred communication
source used by terrorists and is often the way that their bombs are
detonated.
How will you communicate with your loved ones in the event you cannot
speak to each other? You need to have a plan.
If you understand, and believe what you have just read, then you must
feel compelled to send this to every concerned parent, guardian,
grandparents, uncles, aunts, whomever. Don't stop there. In addition
to sharing this via e-mail, contact and discuss this information with
whomever it makes sense to. Make contingency plans with those you care
about. Better that you have plans in place, and never have to use
them, then to have no plans in place, and find you needed them.
If you choose not to share this, or not to have a plan in place, and
nothing ever occurs -- good for you! However, in the event something
does happen, and even moreso, if it directly affects your loved ones,
then this e-mail will haunt you forever.
Telling yourself after the fact, "I should have sent this to so and
so, but deleted it as so much trash from old Bill Jones, plus, I just
didn't believe it", will not change anything. You were alerted, had
the chance to do something, and instead of erring on the side of
caution, you chose to disregard, if nothing else, a sensible, valuable
warning
Improvise, Overcome, Adapt
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
T Jefferson
4-H Certified Shotgun, Rifle, Pistol, Archery & Muzzleloading Instructor
NRA/ATA Shotgun Coach
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
T Jefferson
4-H Certified Shotgun, Rifle, Pistol, Archery & Muzzleloading Instructor
NRA/ATA Shotgun Coach
- zephyp
- VGOF Platinum Supporter

- Posts: 10207
- Joined: Tue, 05 May 2009 08:40:55
- Location: Springfield, VA
Re: Assumptions
What he's sayin makes good sense. I wouldnt be surprised if they dont shoot up a few traffic jams.
No more catchy slogans for me...I am simply fed up...4...four...4...2+2...


Re: Assumptions
Support our Troops by becoming an Angel: http://www.soldiersangels.org
Re: Assumptions
I've been expecting a van or truck to explode on 66 or 495 at 7:30am for years now.
Improvise, Overcome, Adapt
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
T Jefferson
4-H Certified Shotgun, Rifle, Pistol, Archery & Muzzleloading Instructor
NRA/ATA Shotgun Coach
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
T Jefferson
4-H Certified Shotgun, Rifle, Pistol, Archery & Muzzleloading Instructor
NRA/ATA Shotgun Coach
Re: Assumptions
Thank you for that moss20. That was very informative and something that I think everyone needs to read. We also must realize that if this does indeed happen, Martial Law will be immediately established.