Ebola
Posted: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 02:43:37
When the features of an event are changed one naturally should not expect the same outcome. Yet with the largest outbreak in history, as far as I understand, currently underway I see people treating this as if nothing has changed and thus the outcome should be about normal. This infection should act in the same manner:
The vectors are the same as well as transmission. The virus is weak outside the body and without direct contact to fluids it is difficult to spread.
The obstacles are the same. Poor hospitals, if they are even in place, mistrust by locals and customs that help spread disease.
The reaction is the same. Track, contain, treat, bleach, WHO and local experts.
Yet somehow this has turned into the largest incident of the sort. So what has changed that has caused an outcome of greater effect despite the same conditions? Luck, or lack thereof, will always be a possibility. The other option is that the disease has changed. It is a known strain, there are several but the small number of cases makes it such that there are fewer types of strains.
The common cold, for instance, being prevalent everywhere is genetically diverse. It has a variety of conditions to overcome, and some errors in genetics occur with quantity and time. But Ebola typically kills before maximum infection of the population can occur, less pathogens so less mutations. Doctors know what their dealing with and how to approach it. Some of the strains take only a few days, the current one up to three weeks, before symptoms kick in. Even so with a longer incubation period few outbreaks get past the small villages of origin. I hope its not airborne, and its likely not, but something is different because the outcome so far has been drastically different.
It's moved to cities. Doctors around this can and do get ill, this is to be expected they know this and we should appreciate their sacrifices. But now several doctors are sick. The local expert (who knew both the disease and cultural obstacles) is dead, despite protective gear, despite being the expert, he is dead. The cookie monster just choked to death on an Oreo. Now they are running out of doctors. They are running out of doctors while still trying to play catch up. It has also ridden on a plane. People exposed outside of the know area of infection remain missing in hiding.
So why is it on such a dark and cold eve that people persist in saying that because in the past infections were easy to control, have never gotten here, would have never spread if it did. The conditions have changed so I must assume that the outcome will be different. The Devil is no longer at the door, he skipped knocking and is now in the kitchen.
How, if at all, one should prepare is uncertain. I can only say that the people telling you everything will be alright may be selling snake oil, for if that was the case this virus wouldn't have left the jungle. We are due for a flood a century. On the river we build homes on the banks made by century floods often knowing that one day the water will come to collect that which it left behind a century ago. While there have been some outbreaks of various scary things in the past century it has almost been a century since the Spanish Flu came and killed multiples of what warfare could produce. We are due a flood.
The vectors are the same as well as transmission. The virus is weak outside the body and without direct contact to fluids it is difficult to spread.
The obstacles are the same. Poor hospitals, if they are even in place, mistrust by locals and customs that help spread disease.
The reaction is the same. Track, contain, treat, bleach, WHO and local experts.
Yet somehow this has turned into the largest incident of the sort. So what has changed that has caused an outcome of greater effect despite the same conditions? Luck, or lack thereof, will always be a possibility. The other option is that the disease has changed. It is a known strain, there are several but the small number of cases makes it such that there are fewer types of strains.
The common cold, for instance, being prevalent everywhere is genetically diverse. It has a variety of conditions to overcome, and some errors in genetics occur with quantity and time. But Ebola typically kills before maximum infection of the population can occur, less pathogens so less mutations. Doctors know what their dealing with and how to approach it. Some of the strains take only a few days, the current one up to three weeks, before symptoms kick in. Even so with a longer incubation period few outbreaks get past the small villages of origin. I hope its not airborne, and its likely not, but something is different because the outcome so far has been drastically different.
It's moved to cities. Doctors around this can and do get ill, this is to be expected they know this and we should appreciate their sacrifices. But now several doctors are sick. The local expert (who knew both the disease and cultural obstacles) is dead, despite protective gear, despite being the expert, he is dead. The cookie monster just choked to death on an Oreo. Now they are running out of doctors. They are running out of doctors while still trying to play catch up. It has also ridden on a plane. People exposed outside of the know area of infection remain missing in hiding.
So why is it on such a dark and cold eve that people persist in saying that because in the past infections were easy to control, have never gotten here, would have never spread if it did. The conditions have changed so I must assume that the outcome will be different. The Devil is no longer at the door, he skipped knocking and is now in the kitchen.
How, if at all, one should prepare is uncertain. I can only say that the people telling you everything will be alright may be selling snake oil, for if that was the case this virus wouldn't have left the jungle. We are due for a flood a century. On the river we build homes on the banks made by century floods often knowing that one day the water will come to collect that which it left behind a century ago. While there have been some outbreaks of various scary things in the past century it has almost been a century since the Spanish Flu came and killed multiples of what warfare could produce. We are due a flood.
