So, I gotta ask..... Egypt?

[zephyp]

@Gat6 --- I think we should wait till the fat lady sings regarding the MB in Egypt...based on what I've seen there are alot of folks there - who protested for Mubarak's resignation - that say they would welcome Sharia rule...also during the last "election" the MB did win several senate seats, thus they already have a small power base within...

Regarding obamacare -- the federal government forcing us to buy anything is evil and borders on fascism not to mention its downright un-Constitutional...and I dont care what others say -- I say repeal it...

[gatlingun6]

The Rasmussen poll you quoted is correct; however, it's also skewed. Note that the people polled were likely voters. So it's true to that extent, however, there are numerous other polls that used random samples. Both the associated press and Washington Post ABC poll went did that. The AP poll found that only 25% supported full repeal. Strong opposition stood at 30%. 40% expressed support for the law, whereas 41% opposed it.

The ABC/WaPo poll found that 45% Support the law and 50% Opposed it. However, when you drill down among the 50% they found: 33% want a complete repeal, 35% want a partial repeal, and 30% want to wait and see. When you drill down further you find the numbers skewed even more because many of those who support repeal did so because they think the law did not go far enough. These were truly random samples.

So you are saying that a lot of people who won't vote or can't vote because they are ineligibly want Obama care?

At best polling is confused and inconclusive.

Actually it is very much a statistical science. The problem of course is that non-professionals like the ABC/WaPo get it completely wrong because they have a political bias or point to prove. The polls done by Rasmussen and other professional polling agencies are usually spot on. I.e. they are right way more than they are wrong. Can't say that about "news" polls.

I take the President at his word when he says he is willing to listen to anyone who has ideas to improve the AHCA.

By improve he means more government control. Also, you believe this because of his absolutely wonderful bipartisanship when they passed Obama care right? Hook, line, and sinker.

****************************************************************************
A little clarification:
1. I simply pointed out a methodological difference between Rasmussen and other polling firms such as Pew. If you think polls of likely voters are all that matter on any issue, I can't disagree with some of your conclusions. However, since AHCA has an impact on everyone to varying degrees, I want to know what the general populace think, and random live surveys of adults are the only way to do that. Rasmussen surveys are typically automated.

2. Polling is a statistical science, but it is neither exacting nor precise because it is subject to human foibles. We know for example that question sequence, the way a question is asked, questions not asked, sample size, who is polled, etc, all bear on poll results. Do professional polling organizations skew polls on purpose? I can't say, but my gut says no. Generally they are quantitatively accurate based on the survey sample. If the sample is of likely voters that's what you get, if it's a random sample of adults that's what you get within the expressed margin of error.

3. ABC News/WaPo polls are run by professional polling and statistical analysis businesses. 3 different firms handle ABC/WaPo polling. They are all run by professionals and staff who are well qualified. They are members of various Associations involved in polling, some have received industry awards and accolades. At least one has been in business for over 20 years. ABC/WaPo periodically uses academia to evaluate their polling operation. Where's the political bias?

4. You used several phrases tested by operations research outfits like those run by Dr. Frank Lutnz, who is brilliant. His main message is: "It's not what you say, but what people hear". So AHCA becomes "Obamacare", end of life counseling becomes "death panels", AHCA becomes "government takeover of health care", which means what? Government writes the rules, they own the market, the actors, what? Markets have rules written by some entity. In every industrialized nation that's government. Who prefers that ea market actor write their own rules? Libertarians do! Since we started there, we need no theories. Just Look back when hospitals actually had "death panels", they could and did turn away indigents, etc. Without AHCA private insurance providers could and did terminate health care insurance based on any number of things. There's nothing evil about that because any for profit corporation's 1st responsibility is to share holders.

5. The lion's share of health care costs for Americans is paid by government at all levels. Just 2 programs, Medicare and Medicaid cover a combined 107 million people! That's without counting health care costs for federal and state public health services, the VA, the Armed Forces, federal, state, and local employees, and government contractors and sub-contractors at all levels. We, us, you and I pay those bills! If we do nothing, Medicare and Medicaid bankrupts the country. On their current curve costs are unsustainable. So someone wants us (the government) who pay the most to stay out of the market? Should government step aside and let a consortium of industry actors write the rules? Oops, we have that already to a degree. For example the industry virtually wrote Medicare Part D that rewarded themselves with a multi-billion dollar payout.

6. My mother, God rest her soul, walked into a hospital 3 years ago and did not walk out. She was in an intensive care unit for about a month after surgery. Ultimately she lost her fight due to a massive infection. I was there every single day discussing what to do, or not do with her primary care doctors, intensive care staff, and surgeons. She was on Medicare. So how often did I have to talk to a government official about procedures? Not once. How often did any doctor or hospital administrator say, we have to check first with the government. Again,not once. That prolonged stay was convincing: Anyone who thinks our health care market place is just fine is wearing a blindfold, it's broken and all the actors know it.

7. In 2010 Medicare was a $509 billion dollar program, 12% of the federal budget, and 23% of total health care spending! Do nothing and around 2020 Medicare costs approache $1 trillion dollars! CBO says repeal would cost not save funds. The feds should step aside and allow industry to dictate how the funds should be expended? Why?

8. AHCA was passed through reconciliation, a legal legislative procedure. Without getting into who used it more, it has been used by Democratic and Republican Congresses. Remember Karl Rove's 50 plus 1 strategy? That announced the reconciliation strategy. All of the Bush tax cuts were enacted under reconciliation. Clinton's FY94 budget? Yep, reconciliation. Does it mean the enacted legislation has no provisions advanced by one party, or another? Nope. Do I like reconciliation? No. I also don't like that by rule one Senator can use holds, nor that over coming a filibuster should require 60 votes. At least reconciliation was specifically enacted into law. Are Republican adds in AHCA? Yes.

9.Is AHCA the best we can do? No, so let's improve it, not repeal it. So far, the 1st bipartisan change to AHCA eliminates a paperwork requirement for small businesses. The President has also agreed that the dates states can experiment with their own market should be moved up. Could I support repeal? Sure, provided a CBO scored replacement supported by majorities in the House and a super majority in the Senate was on the table. Despite all the noise no replacement has been offered nor likely. Repeal to be offered. Repeal and replace quickly became replace and nothing.

I end as I began with polling, (Yeaaah he's done!). Polls are useful tools for our political leaders. However, they are not governing tools. We are not a direct democracy, which is a tyranny of the majority. We elect our political leaders, at least I do, with no expectation that they will faithfully execute a polling result. If they don't trip my smokeometer, and I can see some logical, rational basis for their stance, or vote. OK I can accept it, even when I don't like it.

Btw what's your solution?

Gat6

[gunderwood]

I'm not sure what the point of resurrecting a thread which is a month old was besides trolling?

A little clarification:
1. I simply pointed out a methodological difference between Rasmussen and other polling firms such as Pew. If you think polls of likely voters are all that matter on any issue, I can't disagree with some of your conclusions. However, since AHCA has an impact on everyone to varying degrees, I want to know what the general populace think, and random live surveys of adults are the only way to do that. Rasmussen surveys are typically automated.

All adults improperly biases the survey to include people who can't vote for one reason or another. For example, all those illegal immigrants the Democrats want to give citizenship so they can get a bunch of voters. There are a lot of reasons the professional pollsters stick to likely voters and yes, some of it is just because there is money to be made providing data to politicians.

2. Polling is a statistical science, but it is neither exacting nor precise because it is subject to human foibles. We know for example that question sequence, the way a question is asked, questions not asked, sample size, who is polled, etc, all bear on poll results. Do professional polling organizations skew polls on purpose? I can't say, but my gut says no. Generally they are quantitatively accurate based on the survey sample. If the sample is of likely voters that's what you get, if it's a random sample of adults that's what you get within the expressed margin of error.

Thanks for agreeing with me, but that isn't what you originally said. It very much is an exact probabilistic science in tabulation of statistics, but like all stats you can manipulate some things to get exact, but biased results. The results are exact calculations of probabilistic statements/questions...if you aren't reading them that way then you are reading them wrong.

3. ABC News/WaPo polls are run by professional polling and statistical analysis businesses. 3 different firms handle ABC/WaPo polling. They are all run by professionals and staff who are well qualified. They are members of various Associations involved in polling, some have received industry awards and accolades. At least one has been in business for over 20 years. ABC/WaPo periodically uses academia to evaluate their polling operation. Where's the political bias?

The difference is exactly what you pointed out in #2. The professional polling and analysis is simply the mechanism for executing the poll. The bias is in its formulation which the media outlets often create or heavily influence. If you hand a set of house building plans to a contractor and tell them to build it, it really isn't their fault if you forgot a roof. The execution and analysis is very much a science, but the formulation is mostly an art and highly subjective...there is a lot of bias in that end of the game. You make this same point in #4, but that contradicts your claim here...I have a much longer memory than one paragraph.

4. You used several phrases tested by operations research outfits like those run by Dr. Frank Lutnz, who is brilliant. His main message is: "It's not what you say, but what people hear". So AHCA becomes "Obamacare", end of life counseling becomes "death panels", AHCA becomes "government takeover of health care", which means what? <deleted trolling rant...at least it wasn't the whole post like the old days, eh?>

It means that the formulation of a poll is critical for valid results. The WaPo can send out a post to a professional organization to execute, but they either create or heavily influence the polls formation because they want a particular answer. E.g. poll all people, not just voters or likely voters...don't ask if they are citizen, just poll everyone...don't use the term "Obamacare"...etc.

I never questioned the statistical calculations or methods, but I did question their formulation practices. Formulation IMHO accounts for their heavily skewed polls.

5. The lion's share of health care costs for Americans is paid by government at all levels. Just 2 programs, Medicare and Medicaid cover a combined 107 million people! That's without counting health care costs for federal and state public health services, the VA, the Armed Forces, federal, state, and local employees, and government contractors and sub-contractors at all levels. We, us, you and I pay those bills! If we do nothing, Medicare and Medicaid bankrupts the country. On their current curve costs are unsustainable. So someone wants us (the government) who pay the most to stay out of the market? Should government step aside and let a consortium of industry actors write the rules? Oops, we have that already to a degree. For example the industry virtually wrote Medicare Part D that rewarded themselves with a multi-billion dollar payout.

How does owning most of the market in any way make the government out of it? I've always said we never should have started those programs because the federal government has no such power and they were ignorant ideas from the beginning. They never were sustainable. The were folly from day one.

You do have one thing very right here though. The large corporations have been and will continue to buy politicians and write bills that advantage them exactly because people like you wanted to give the government the power to regulate those markets. If Medicare never existed then there would never have been a chance to write Part D would there?

6. My mother, God rest her soul, walked into a hospital 3 years ago and did not walk out. She was in an intensive care unit for about a month after surgery. Ultimately she lost her fight due to a massive infection. I was there every single day discussing what to do, or not do with her primary care doctors, intensive care staff, and surgeons. She was on Medicare. So how often did I have to talk to a government official about procedures? Not once. How often did any doctor or hospital administrator say, we have to check first with the government. Again,not once. That prolonged stay was convincing: Anyone who thinks our health care market place is just fine is wearing a blindfold, it's broken and all the actors know it.

Appeal to emotion much? Oh wait, that's your whole platform.

Medicare has rules, those doctors/hospitals abide by the rules or else they wouldn't be paid. Of course they didn't have to check with the government, they have a whole team of lawyer who write hospital policy to be inline with the rules because they want to get paid. Government makes the rules, then they enforce compliance...its far to messy to actually get their hands dirty with actual decisions, but they do bind and limit what you will be offered. Unless you can pay for something extra, the hospital isn't going to offer you something Medicare won't pay for.

7. In 2010 Medicare was a $509 billion dollar program, 12% of the federal budget, and 23% of total health care spending! Do nothing and around 2020 Medicare costs approache $1 trillion dollars! CBO says repeal would cost not save funds. The feds should step aside and allow industry to dictate how the funds should be expended? Why?

Your missing the whole point. Medicare is doomed to fail because it was never a sustainable program from the beginning. The very government regulations which you claim can save it were the cause of the very problem your complaining about! No, more government control won't save a thing...they should never have been involved in the first place and if we want a sustainable solution we must get them out entirely.

Ever hear one definition of insanity about doing the same thing over and over expecting different results? That's the government solution.

8. AHCA was passed through reconciliation, a legal legislative procedure. <deleted trolling/rant>

Yes, which now it appears they even had to lie about that through accounting tricks.

9.Is AHCA the best we can do? No, so let's improve it, not repeal it. <deleted trolling/rant>

Increasing government control will never be an improvement. I love how easy it is for you to want control over my life and decisions. Repeal is only one step towards improvement, we must repeal the other flawed "reform" acts as well. We must do away with unsustainable programs.

As a side note, at this rate we are leaping and bounding towards another civil war.

I end as I began with polling, (Yeaaah he's done!). Polls are useful tools for our political leaders. However, they are not governing tools. We are not a direct democracy, which is a tyranny of the majority. We elect our political leaders, at least I do, with no expectation that they will faithfully execute a polling result. If they don't trip my smokeometer, and I can see some logical, rational basis for their stance, or vote. OK I can accept it, even when I don't like it.

Nice strawmen. Who claimed polls weren't useful? No one. Who claimed we should govern off of them? No one. Who said representatives should only do what polls say? No one. You made it up to make it sound like you had a good point. Gotta knock something down right?

[Yarddawg]

[grumpyMSG]

gunderwood's logic versus gatlinggun6's emotion.

Who will win this "Thriller"?

Oddsmakers are predicting it will be entertaining and that gatlinggun6 will sulk off and disappear for a month.

[zephyp]

As a side note, at this rate we are leaping and bounding towards another civil war.

So, I wonder how the MSM would report a civil war and how it would be handled by the current administration...

Left fires the first shot..."In today's news the Leftist rebels are desperately fighting for our country's way of life. President Obama has ordered all National Guard and Active Army troops to shoot Right Wing Nuts and Tea baggers on sight."

Right fires the first shot..."In today's news Right Wing Nuts continue to perpetrate the most heinous crime in US history. President Obama has ordered all National Guard and Active Army troops to shoot Right Wing Nuts and Tea baggers on sight."

[VBshooter]

[jim100]

DOH

[Yarddawg]

gunderwood's logic versus gatlinggun6's emotion.

Who will win this "Thriller"?

Oddsmakers are predicting it will be entertaining and that gatlinggun6 will sulk off and disappear for a month.

5 of 5!

[Palladin]

gunderwood's logic versus gatlinggun6's emotion.

Who will win this "Thriller"?

Oddsmakers are predicting it will be entertaining and that gatlinggun6 will sulk off and disappear for a month.

5 of 5!

As tweaker sed in anuther thred, This be the VA Gun Owners ENTERTAINMENT Forum!