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Virginia incumbents losses explained by weakness on gun rights
November 8, 11:07 PM
DC Gun Rights Examiner
Mike Stollenwerk

Last Tuesday’s election in Virginia has been reported by some as a
vote of no confidence in the Obama administration. Maybe it was – but
a closer look indicates that seven of the nine incumbents who lost
were caught flat footed on gun rights.

Generally in the United States, “there is a large advantage to
incumbency in the elections to the lower chamber at the state level.”
Arguably then the most noteworthy election outcome in a lower state
legislative house is when a significant number of incumbent
legislators lose.


According to analysis by the Washington Post’s Derek Kravitz,

“[t]he defeat of several incumbents Tuesday marked a change from
recent elections. During the past 14 years, nearly all of the state's
delegates have been reelected . . . This year's 90 percent reelection
rate was the lowest since 1995. An incumbent hadn't lost in Northern
Virginia since 2005 [but on] Tuesday, Republicans gained six seats in
the House, winning eight and losing two with one race [apparently
Democratic incumbent Del. Bobby Mathieson (D-Virginia Beach) who
trailed Republican Ron Villanueva on election night by 16 votes]
undecided.”

Counting Mathieson, nine incumbent members of Virginia's lower
legislative body, the House of Delegates, lost their bid for
re-election. The losing Delegates hailed from all corners of Virginia,
from urbanized Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, to rural Lynchburg
and Southwest Virginia. Eight losers were Democrats, and one was a
Republican.

As you can see from the chart below, five of the losing incumbents
were NRA F rated and hailed from the anti-gun wing of the House of
Delegates which was outvoted 2-1 this year on HB 1035, a bill to
repeal Virginia’s ban on concealed carry in restaurants serving
alcohol. Only nine other states have such a ban.

Incumbent Delegate Vote on SB 1035 NRA Rating Winning Challenger NRA
Rating NRA Endorsement VCDL Endorsement
Poison (D) Nay F Greason (R) A Greason Greason
Caputo (D) Nay F Lemunion (R) C
Vanderhye (D) Nay F Comstock (R) A
Mathieson (D) Nay F Villanueva (R) A- Villanueva
Hamilton (R) Nay C Abbot (R) ?
Nichols (D) Yea B Anderson (R) A Anderson
Valentine (D) Yea B Garrett (R) A Garrett
Bowling (D) Yea B Morefield (R) A Bowling
Bouchard (D) Yea A Stolle (R) A


Of the remaining losing incumbents, Valentine, Nichols, and Bowling
went into the race disadvantaged by an NRA B rating compared to their
opponents' A ratings, with Valentine's and Nichols' opponents
garnering official NRA or VCDL endorsements, respectively. It should
be noted though that VCDL endorsed incumbent Democratic Delegate
Bowling based on his long record of pro-gun votes in the General
Assembly.

The final incumbent to lose, Virginia Beach's Delegate Bouchard, did
so in a re-match against his previous election opponent, Chris Stolle,
whose brother, Senator Ken Stolle, was simultaneously running for
Sheriff of Virginia Beach. Ken Stolle led the fight in the Senate
last year against banning private firearm sales at gun shows and so it
is possible that Chris Stolle benefited from the coat tails of pro-gun
Ken Stolle's campaign in the same city.

Philip Van Cleave, President of the Virginia Citizens Defense League,
Inc. feels that "the results show that this election was open season
on anti-gun incumbents. The antis have lost at least five reliable
anti-gun votes in the already pro-gun House of Delegates, and their
perennial bill to restrict private firearm sales at gun shows has now
assumed room temperature and is already developing rigor mortis."

Looking to the future, Van Cleave said that "we will be tracking gun
votes carefully as both the House and Senate will be up for election
again in just two years."


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