30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

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30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby AlanM » Sun, 26 Nov 2017 14:13:21

This was found not too long ago in the DemocraticUnderground Gun Control & RKBA (Group).
[url=https://www.democraticunderground.com/1172205094]
30 years of gun sales, or graphics showing gun control effort's unintended consequences[/url]

A couple of months ago, when I had some free time, I dipped a toe into some of the BATFE's sales data on guns. Today, having lots of free time (avoiding the shopping frenzy and distracting myself from some personal issues) I went deeper into the ATF's data and crunched some numbers. I subtracted exports and added imports, and got a slightly newer version of the report (data goes to 2015, not 2013).


There are download links for the author's spreadsheet (data and graphs) in both .xls and .ods forms.
I downloaded the .ods and it loaded perfectly into LibreOffice calc.
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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby MarcSpaz » Sun, 26 Nov 2017 16:50:46

That's really good... Based on the growth rate from 1996, there has been an estimated 226.5 million firearms sold to date. There is a gun for 70% of the US population. This information alone should prove that firearms are not the "enabler" some would want us to believe.

It makes we wonder just how many individuals own a firearm today? Everyone who I know personally, that owns a firearm, owns more than one firearm. I wonder if that is significantly/mostly true with regard to the population? And for every person out there who does only own 1 gun, how many people offset that numbers by owning something like 5 guns... or 15, etc.

The thinker in me wants to know those answers. The Constitutionalist in me is thankful, things like private sales and boating accidents will prevent the government from ever really truly knowing.


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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby smltooner » Sun, 26 Nov 2017 22:34:35

MarcSpaz wrote:......The thinker in me wants to know those answers. The Constitutionalist in me is thankful, things like private sales and boating accidents will prevent the government from ever really truly knowing.

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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby AlanM » Mon, 27 Nov 2017 07:25:20

Anybody got a reasonable estimate of how many of those guns are still shootable.
I would assume that some small percentage would become unusable.
The rest would be a fairly good estimate of the number of modern firearms owned.
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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby AlanM » Mon, 27 Nov 2017 07:28:56

This is JUST A GUESS !!!
Most honest poles of American attitudes place the split between pro and anti at about 2 to 1 so I would estimate that two thirds of the adults in the US live in a home with firearms, if not own them directly.
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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby MarcSpaz » Mon, 27 Nov 2017 07:47:26

AlanM wrote:Anybody got a reasonable estimate of how many of those guns are still shootable.
I would assume that some small percentage would become unusable.
The rest would be a fairly good estimate of the number of modern firearms owned.


Based on all the YouTube videos of people blowing up the gun after a squib, I'm sure there are a fairly decent amount (percentage wise) that no longer function.


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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby AlanM » Tue, 28 Nov 2017 14:37:23

Today I took the spreadsheet and produced the totals.

For the 30 years 1986-2015:
Total firearms manufactured in US minus exports: 140,926,142
Total firearms Imported: 63,198,884
Total firearms added to US supply lines: 204,125,026
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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby AlanM » Wed, 29 Nov 2017 08:35:15

I pulled the data for total guns added to supply chain for the years 1999-2015 (the years for which there is full year data for both the above and NICS) and compared them to the FBI NICS totals.


Code: Select all
           Annual        NICS
           Totals        Checks
1999     4,899,709     9,138,123
2000     4,860,127     8,543,037
2001     4,278,242     8,910,191
2002     4,974,432     8,454,322
2003     4,743,928     8,481,588
2004     4,990,376     8,687,671
2005     5,324,990     8,952,945
2006     6,049,974    10,036,933
2007     6,611,145    11,177,335
2008     7,012,766    12,709,023
2009     9,024,109    14,033,824
2010     8,231,258    14,409,616
2011     9,603,883    16,454,951
2012    13,117,046    19,592,303
2013    15,889,189    21,093,273
2014    12,317,729    20,968,547
2015    12,841,741    23,141,970
      
TOTALS 134,770,644   224,785,652


If I recall correctly there are some states that are using NICS for checking the national crime records of Concealed License/Permit holder to see if they need to have them revoked.
This would inflate the NICS stats and not reflect true sales.
Also not all legitimate checks result in a sale and some percentage result in purchase of multiple firearms.
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There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men. - RAH
Four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo - use in that order.
If you aren't part of the solution, then you obviously weren't properly dissolved.


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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby Viper21 » Wed, 29 Nov 2017 10:06:05

MarcSpaz wrote:That's really good... Based on the growth rate from 1996, there has been an estimated 226.5 million firearms sold to date. There is a gun for 70% of the US population. This information alone should prove that firearms are not the "enabler" some would want us to believe.

It makes we wonder just how many individuals own a firearm today? Everyone who I know personally, that owns a firearm, owns more than one firearm. I wonder if that is significantly/mostly true with regard to the population? And for every person out there who does only own 1 gun, how many people offset that numbers by owning something like 5 guns... or 15, etc.

The thinker in me wants to know those answers. The Constitutionalist in me is thankful, things like private sales and boating accidents will prevent the government from ever really truly knowing.


Although impossible to validate, I would be willing to bet there are more guns than people in the US. Think about it... how many guns do you personally own that weren't purchased..? ie: handed down. How many were purchased prior to the federal background checks..? Or bought privately from someone who purchased pre-fed background checks.

Also, +1 on the personally known gun owners. Most people I know personally are gun owners. The majority of them own multiple firearms. I know multiple people who own 10+. In fact, after racking my brain a little for this response, out of all the people I know who are gun owners, I can only think of 1 person who only owns 1 firearm. That list includes multiple females, & one end of the age bracket to the other.

The myth that more guns equals more violent crime is laughable....


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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby MarcSpaz » Wed, 29 Nov 2017 15:15:21

Viper21 wrote:Although impossible to validate, I would be willing to bet there are more guns than people in the US. Think about it... how many guns do you personally own that weren't purchased..? ie: handed down. How many were purchased prior to the federal background checks..? Or bought privately from someone who purchased pre-fed background checks.


Good point. Also, those original stats don't include weapons made by private owners that have not been serialized and reported (which is perfectly legal as far as I have read). Also, lets be honest... there are an unbelievable amount of weapons smuggled into the US every year. The criminal empire of illegally manufactured and imported guns is so large in the US that a documentary was done about it as part of the Crime Inc. TV series.

Viper21 wrote:The myth that more guns equals more violent crime is laughable....


No doubt... That has been debunked over and over again.


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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby miniwini » Wed, 29 Nov 2017 15:18:36

Wow, Very Interested thing to read :)
Thanks! :machinegun: :first:


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Re: 30 years of FBI gun sales stats(with trends)

Postby Reverenddel » Thu, 30 Nov 2017 10:11:27

Agreed. Because if you think about "gun owners" there are more than people report.

I got "Left wingers" in my circle that own 2 and 3 and would NEVER tell anyone they own weapons! That's their "Paranoia about Dubya" guns.... But they practice, and they have them.

Magnify that to those people who come from an age where the guv'mint IS NOT your friend! You think someone from the Eastern Block is gonna say "I AM A GUN OWNER!" Not really. The ones that do are my heroes! They fought to leave, and they fight that indoctrination every day!

Old folks won't admit it, because they're scared punks will break in for their guns. They wanna be that "lil' surprise" for them.


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